From the 1st April 2011, the responsibility for the collection of data and production of official labour market and economic statistics transferred from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), an agency of the Department of Finance and Personnel (DFP). This transfer mirrored the position in Great Britain where most business surveys and labour market data collection and statistical production have been transferred from the departments with policy responsibilities to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, it is important to note that there are no planned changes to the production of economic and labour market statistical publications and outputs as a result of the transfer.
Labour Market Summary (seasonally adjusted)
Seasonally adjusted Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for Northern Ireland for the period January - March 2012 showed an increase over the quarter in the number of employed and economically inactive persons, while there was a decrease in the number of unemployed persons. The seasonally adjusted claimant count in April 2012 increased by 700 over the month to 62,500. There were 676 proposed redundancies notified in the latest reference period and 134 confirmed redundancies in April 2012.
Employment
The number of persons in employment in the period January - March 2012 was estimated at 801,000. This estimate increased by 1,000 over the quarter and was up 15,000 over the year. The employment rate for those aged 16-64 was estimated at 67.6%, this was up 0.2 percentage points over the quarter and was up 0.7 percentage points over the year. However, NI’s employment rate remained below the UK average (70.5%) and was the third lowest rate among the twelve UK regions.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate for the period January - March 2012 was estimated at 6.7%, down 0.5 percentage points over both the quarter and year. The number of unemployed persons was estimated at 57,000, down 5,000 over the quarter and down 4,000 over the year.
Unadjusted figures show that 46.6% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 1 year or more – down 1.1 percentage points over the year. They also estimate the unemployment rate for 18 - 24 year olds at 17.9% – up 0.1 percentage points over the year.
Economically Inactive
The seasonally adjusted number of economically inactive persons in the period January - March 2012 was estimated at 555,000. This figure has increased by 7,000 over the quarter and was unchanged over the year.
The NI economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 stands at 27.4%. This is significantly higher than the UK average rate (23.0%) and is the highest of the twelve UK regions. Unadjusted figures estimate that 32% of the economically inactive, aged 16-64, in NI are students, 27% are sick/disabled, 24% are looking after the family/home, 11% are retired and 7% are ‘other’ reason.
Unadjusted figures also show that while 91% of the inactive do not want work, the remaining 9% (51,000) want employment but do not satisfy the full ILO job search criteria (by actively seeking work and being available to start a job).
Estimates from the LFS have an associated degree of statistical error as they are based on a sample of the population. The annual changes for the main LFS categories of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity were tested for statistical significance. The results showed that none of the annual changes in the estimates were statistically significant i.e. the recorded change did not exceed the variability expected from a sample survey of this size (see Section 9 of the Labour Market report for details).
Unemployment Regional Comparison
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (6.7%) was lower than the overall UK average rate (8.2%) and was the joint third lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. The NI rate was also below the European Union (10.2%) and Republic of Ireland (14.7%) rates for February 2012. Comparable figures for the three months to February 2012 estimate the NI unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds at 17.0%, compared to a UK average rate of 19.4%.
Claimant Count
The more recent seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 700 (1.1%) from last month’s revised total. It now stands at 62,500 (6.8% of the workforce) in April 2012. Over the year the Claimant Count in NI has increased by 3,300 (5.6%) and the workforce unemployment rate has increased by 0.3 percentage points.
Claimant Count Regional Comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate in NI (6.8%) was higher than the UK average rate (4.9%) and was the second highest rate among the twelve UK regions. The monthly increase in NI claimants (1.1%) was in contrast to the UK average decrease of 0.9% during the same period. However, the annual increase in NI claimants (5.6%) was the fourth lowest among the UK regions (the annual increase in the UK was 7.2%).
Claimant count rates for District Council Areas
Unadjusted numbers as a percentage of the resident working age population show that the highest rates at April 2012 were in Derry (8.2%), Belfast (7.5%), Strabane (7.1%) and Limavady (6.7%). Those that showed the highest percentage increase in levels over the year to April 2012 were Carrickfergus (13.8%), Lisburn (11.8%) and Craigavon (11.6%). For further District Council data please see section 3 of the Labour Market Report.
Employment and Training Measures
The Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) provides a number of services and programmes to help jobseekers find work. In September 2008 Steps to Work, the Department's new flexible approach to helping people to find work, was introduced in Northern Ireland and subsumes the main New Deal programmes. Overall, there has been an increase of 3.2% (432 persons) to 13,935 over the year to April 2012 in the number of those claimants who are eligible for mandatory participation on Steps to Work. However, anyone over 18 years old (or lone parents aged 16 years old or over) who is not working (or working less than 16 hours each week) is eligible. Steps to Work and New Deal statistics are currently accessible via the DEL web link below:
Steps to Work / New Deal statistics
Redundancies
There were 676 proposed redundancies notified during the period mid April 2012 to mid May 2012. This compares to 196 proposed redundancies that were notified in the previous monthly period.
There were 134 confirmed redundancies in the month of April . Over the latest twelve month period there were a total of 1,998 confirmed redundancies, an increase of 13% from the previous year (1,772).
Over the latest twelve month period there were a total of 3,252 proposed redundancies, an increase of 33% from the previous year (2,442).
Currently there are 1,667 outstanding redundancies (that is, proposed but not confirmed), which is 60% higher than this time last year (1,044).
Note that since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.
Quarterly Employment Survey
The QES provides an estimate of the number of jobs (rather than persons in employment) and is the preferred measure of change in employee jobs. The estimated seasonally adjusted employee jobs total in Northern Ireland at December 2011 was 694,420. This represents a decrease of 3,070 jobs from the revised figure for the previous quarter and a decrease of 7,520 jobs over the year (see Section 9 of the Labour Market Report for details of QES revisions).
The seasonally adjusted quarterly change consisted of an increase in Manufacturing (+710). Both Construction (-940) and Services (-2,810) experienced a decrease over the quarter, while Other Industries also decreased slightly (-30). Over the same period the private sector decreased by 2,220 jobs whilst the public sector also decreased by 980 jobs.
Hours Worked
The total workforce hours worked per week in Northern Ireland in March 2011 was estimated at 25.9 million hours, representing an increase of 1.2% over the year (compared with an increase of 3.2% in GB). Between March 2006 and March 2011, NI’s total workforce hours worked per week decreased by 0.4%, compared with an increase of 2.9% in GB . In the three months to January 2012, the average actual weekly hours worked in NI was 31.4 hours – higher than the UK average (31.1) for the same period.
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
Earnings results for April 2011, which were released on 23rd November 2011, show that yearly growth in median gross weekly earnings for all employees (i.e. both full- and part-time) in NI was 1.5% (to £360.0) compared to the UK, where earnings remained the same (at £403.9). NI full-time employees’ gross weekly earnings at April 2011 were £450.6, which was 90.0% of the figure in the UK (£500.7). NI full-time earnings increased by 3.0% over the period, compared with an increase of 0.4% in the UK.
Full-time weekly private sector earnings increased by 3.5% to £394.2 and part-time earnings increased by 3.8% to £124.6 over the year in NI. This resulted in a narrowing of the NI/UK private sector pay gap to 82.8% of the UK figure.
