Users of QES data should be aware that the sample coverage used to derive employee jobs estimates in NI has been extended. This change has been introduced to provide more comprehensive estimates of employee jobs and also to ensure a consistency of methodology between the 3 main sources of this information, namely the NIQES, the NI Census of Employment and the new NI Business Register Employment Survey (BRES).
This harmonisation of the survey methodologies means that there is now a discontinuity in the QES employee jobs series at the reference period Q3 2009. This is the reference period at which estimates on the original basis will cease, however estimates based on the new coverage are also available from Q3 2009 onwards. This ensures that users have one overlapping reference period to show the impact of the revised methodology.
These changes to the QES sample coverage have been implemented in conjunction with the normal biennial ‘rebasing’ revisions (see link for more information about QES revisions). The two primary changes in methodology are described in further detail below.
i) Extension of the range of classification codes in scope for selection.
The QES currently uses the UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2007 (SIC 2007). This system uses a series of codes to classify all individual businesses within the business register population. The original survey universe used by the NI QES included all business sectors from SIC (2007) 01629 through to SIC (2007) 96090. This QES universe has now been revised in line with the new UK wide BRES to cover all sectors from SIC (2007) 01610 through to SIC (2007) 96090. Hence it now includes the following additional codes which were previously excluded:
0161 – Support Activities for crop production
0162 – Support Activities for animal production
01621 - Farm animal boarding and care
ii) Inclusion of ‘unproven’ businesses previously outside scope of selection register.
The QES sample is drawn biennially from the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) following completion of the Census of Employment and incorporation of these results onto the register. The original QES universe previously only included Reporting Units (Businesses / Organisations) with at least one existing live local unit (i.e. an individual site or location identified by a returned survey form to DFP).
However under this approach a large numbers of ‘unproven’ Reporting units which are likely to have some employment are excluded. An unproven Reporting unit is one which does not include a local unit, but does include a VAT and/or PAYE registered with HMRC and which has not yet been verified by DFP through a returned survey form). Therefore the original coverage is likely to provide an underestimate of the true number of employees in the NI business population. In line with ONS business surveys and the new BRES and Census of Employment, the QES has now also adopted the new coverage to include this portion of the business population which was previously excluded.
Impact of the changes
The latest employee jobs estimates from the Northern Ireland Census of Employment refer to the period Q3 2009. The 2009 Census of Employment was carried out using both the old and new coverage which allows the extent of the impact to be quantified. The following table shows the employee jobs estimate at Q3 2009 on both the old and new population coverage.
Table 1: Impact of extension coverage
| September 2009 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Coverage | New Coverage | ||
| A | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 12,060 | 12,100 |
| B | Mining and quarrying | 1,880 | 1,880 |
| C | Manufacturing | 74,280 | 74,510 |
| D | Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply | 1,310 | 1,310 |
| E | Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities | 4,540 | 4,560 |
| F | Construction | 36,780 | 37,290 |
| G | Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 125,310 | 126,510 |
| H | Transportation and storage | 24,970 | 25,070 |
| I | Accommodation and food service activities | 43,140 | 43,500 |
| J | Information and communication | 15,890 | 16,030 |
| K | Financial and insurance activities | 19,560 | 19,570 |
| L | Real estate activities | 6,630 | 6,780 |
| M | Professional, scientific and technical activities | 23,100 | 23,230 |
| N | Administrative and support service activities | 40,390 | 40,580 |
| O | Public administration and defence; compulsory social security | 58,960 | 58,960 |
| P | Education | 70,600 | 70,600 |
| Q | Human health and social work activities | 117,550 | 117,570 |
| R | Arts, entertainment and recreation | 13,980 | 14,030 |
| S | Other service activities | 13,910 | 13,970 |
| All Industries | 704,850 | 708,050 |
If you have any further questions regarding the nature of these changes please contact
Email :darren.hetherington@dfpni.gov.uk
Tel : (028) 9052 9655
