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Labour Market Summary (seasonally adjusted)

Seasonally adjusted Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for Northern Ireland for the period October - December 2009 estimated an increase over the quarter in the number of employed persons, while there was a fall in the number of economically inactive and in the number of unemployed. The seasonally adjusted claimant count in January 2010 increased by 1,400 over the month to 56,100 and the Department was notified of 512 proposed redundancies in the latest reference period and 147 confirmed redundancies in January 2010.

Employment

The number of persons in employment in the period October - December 2009 was estimated at 765,000.  This represented an increase of 13,000 over the quarter, but a fall of 5,000 over the year.  The working age employment rate was estimated at 67.3%, up 1.0 percentage points over the quarter, but down 1.2 percentage points over the year. NI’s working age employment rate remained well below the UK average (72.4%) and was the lowest of the twelve UK regions.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate for the period October - December 2009 was estimated at 6.0%, down 1.0 percentage points over the quarter, but up 0.7 percentage points over the year. The number of unemployed persons was estimated at 49,000, down 8,000 over the quarter, but up 6,000 over the year.  The male unemployment rate (7.7%) was almost double the female rate (4.0%) in October - December 2009.

Unadjusted figures show that 40.0% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 1 year or more – up 6.4 percentage points over the year.They also estimate the unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds at 12.0% – down 1.4 percentage points over the year.

Economically Inactive

The seasonally adjusted number of economically inactive persons in the period October - December 2009 was estimated at 573,000. This figure has decreased by 2,000 over the quarter, but was up 12,000 over the year.

The working age economic inactivity rate for NI stands at 28.3%.  This is significantly higher than the UK average rate (21.3%) and is the highest of the twelve UK regions.

Unadjusted figures show that while 91% of the inactive do not want work, the remaining 9% want employment but do not satisfy the full ILO job search criteria (by actively seeking work and being available to start a job).  The number of economically inactive persons that want a job (50,000) is similar to the number officially classified as unemployed.

Estimates from the LFS have an associated degree of statistical error as they are based on a sample of the population. None of the annual changes for the main economic categories (in employment, unemployment and economic inactivity) were sufficiently large to be considered statistically significant (see background notes in the LMR for further details).

Unemployment Regional Comparison

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in NI (6.0%) remained below the UK average rate (7.8%) and was the lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. The NI rate also compared favourably to the European Union rate (9.5%) and the Republic of Ireland rate (12.9%) for November 2009.  The annual increase in the NI unemployment rate (+0.7 percentage points) was lower than the UK average increase (+1.4 percentage points).

Claimant Count

The more recent seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 1,400 over the month to January 2010 to 56,100 (6.4% of the workforce). The latest monthly increase was higher than the increase recorded for the previous month (700) and was the largest increase since August 2009.  The increase over the year was 17,000 (43.5%) and the workforce unemployment rate has increased by 1.9 percentage points over the same period.

Claimant Count Regional Comparison

The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate in NI (6.4%) was higher than the UK average rate (5.0%) and was the third highest rate among the UK regions. Over the month to January 2010 the NI Claimant Count level increased by 2.6%, while the UK average increased by 1.5%.  This was the second highest monthly increase of the twelve UK regions.  Over the year the NI Claimant Count level increased by 43.5%, which was higher than the UK average (30.5%) and was the highest annual increase among the twelve UK regions.

Claimant count rates for District Council Areas

Unadjusted numbers as a percentage of the resident working age population show that the highest rates at January 2010 were in Strabane (7.3%), Derry (7.3%) and Limavady (7.1%).  Those that showed the highest percentage increase in levels over the year to January 2010 were Castlereagh (77.7%), Newry and Mourne (64.0%) and Armagh (61.4%).

Employment and Training Measures

The Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) provides a number of services and programmes to help jobseekers find work. In September 2008 Steps to Work, the Department's new flexible approach to helping people to find work, was introduced in Northern Ireland and subsumes the main New Deal programmes. Overall, there has been an increase of 99.1% (4,672 persons) to 9,388 over the year to January 2010 in the number of those claimants who are eligible for mandatory participation on Steps to Work. However, anyone over 18 years old (or lone parents aged 16 years old or over) who is not working (or working less than 16 hours each week) is eligible. New Deal statistics are currently accessible via the DEL web link below - Steps to Work statistics will be published when data is available.

www.delni.gov.uk/index/statistics-and-research/labour-market/new-deal-statistics.htm

Redundancies

The Department was notified of 512 proposed redundancies over the period mid January 2010 to mid February 2010. This compares to 248 proposed redundancies notified to the Department in the previous monthly period.  

There were 147 confirmed redundancies in the month of January .  Over the twelve monthly period there were a total of 4,410 confirmed redundancies, an increase of 47% from the previous year (2,998).  The highest number of confirmed redundancies took place in Belfast District Council area which had 32.3% (1,424) of all redundancies over the year.

Over the twelve monthly period there were a total of 5,166 proposed redundancies, an increase of 46% from the previous year (3,530).

Currently there are 1,521 outstanding redundancies (that is, proposed but not confirmed), which is 24% lower than this time last year (1,996).

Note that since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.

Quarterly Employment Survey

The QES provides an estimate of the number of jobs (rather than persons in employment) and is the preferred measure of change in employee jobs. The estimated seasonally adjusted employee jobs total in Northern Ireland at September 2009 was 701,730. This represents a decrease of 5,010 over the quarter and a decrease of 25,600 over the year.

The seasonally adjusted quarterly change consisted of decreases in Manufacturing (-1,540), in the Service sector (-1,640) and in Construction (-1,720).

Hours Worked

The total workforce hours worked per week in Northern Ireland in September 2009 was estimated at 24.4 million hours, representing a decrease of 6.2% over the year (compared with a decrease of 3.2% in GB).  Between September 2004 and September 2009, NI’s total workforce hours worked per week decreased by 0.4%, compared with a 0.2% increase in GB . In the three months to November 2009, the average actual weekly hours worked in NI was 33.6 hours, compared with 32.6 hours in the UK.

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

Earning results for April 2009, which were released on 12th November 2009, show that yearly growth in median gross weekly earnings for all employees (i.e. both full- and part-time) in NI was 3.4% (to £356.7) compared to 2.2% in the UK (to £397.3).  NI full-time employees’ gross weekly earnings in April 2009 were £439.1, which was approximately 90% of the figure in the UK (£488.7).  NI full-time earnings increased by 5.1% over the period, compared with an increase of 2.0% in the UK.

Full-time private sector median gross weekly earnings in NI increased at a marginally faster rate (1.6% to £383.0) than in the UK, where growth was 1.0% over the year (to £464.7).  This represented little change in the NI/UK private sector pay gap, from 82.0% of the UK figure at April 2008 to 82.4% at April 2009.