From the 1st April 2011, the responsibility for the collection of data and production of official labour market and economic statistics transferred from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), an agency of the Department of Finance and Personnel (DFP). This transfer mirrored the position in Great Britain where most business surveys and labour market data collection and statistical production have been transferred from the departments with policy responsibilities to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, it is important to note that there are no planned changes to the production of economic and labour market statistical publications and outputs as a result of the transfer.
Labour Market Summary (seasonally adjusted)
Seasonally adjusted Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates for Northern Ireland for the period September - November 2011 recorded an increase over the quarter in the number of employed and economically inactive persons, while there was a decrease in the number of unemployed persons. The seasonally adjusted claimant count in December 2011 increased by 100 over the month to 60,700. 693 proposed redundancies were notified in the latest reference period and there were 245 confirmed redundancies in December 2011.
Employment
The number of persons in employment in the period September - November was estimated at 803,000. This estimate was up 4,000 over the quarter and 35,000 over the year. The employment rate for those aged 16-64 was estimated at 67.8%, up 0.5 percentage points over the quarter and 2.5 percentage points over the year. However, NI’s employment rate remained below the UK average (70.3%) and was the fourth lowest rate among the twelve UK regions.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate for the period September - November was estimated at 6.8%, down 0.7 percentage points over the quarter and down 1.0 percentage points over the year. The number of unemployed persons was estimated at 59,000, down 7,000 over both the quarter and year.
Unadjusted figures show that 37.0% of the unemployed have been unemployed for 1 year or more – down 12.8 percentage points over the year. They also estimate the unemployment rate for 18 - 24 year olds at 18.4% – down 2.5 percentage points over the year.
Economically Inactive
The seasonally adjusted number of economically inactive persons in the period September - November was estimated at 547,000. This figure has increased by 5,000 over the quarter, but was down 17,000 over the year.
The NI economic inactivity rate for those aged 16-64 stands at 27.1%. This is significantly higher than the UK average rate (23.1%) and is the highest of the twelve UK regions. Unadjusted figures estimate that 31% of the economically inactive, aged 16-64, in NI are students, 30% are sick/disabled, 21% are looking after the family/home, 12% are retired and 7% are ‘other’ reason.
Unadjusted figures also show that while 91% of the inactive do not want work, the remaining 9% (51,000) want employment but do not satisfy the full ILO job search criteria (by actively seeking work and being available to start a job).
Estimates from the LFS have an associated degree of statistical error as they are based on a sample of the population. The annual changes for the main LFS categories of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity were tested for statistical significance. The results showed that the annual change in the employment level and rate were statistically significant i.e. the recorded change exceeded the variability expected from a sample survey of this size (see Section 9 of the Labour Market Report for details).
Unemployment Regional Comparison
The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (6.8%) was lower than the overall UK average rate (8.4%) and was the third lowest rate among the twelve UK regions. The NI rate was also below the European Union (9.8%) and Republic of Ireland (14.3%) rates for October 2011. Comparable figures for the three months to October 2011 estimate the NI unemployment rate for 18-24 year olds at 18.2%, compared to a UK average rate of 20.5%.
Claimant Count
The more recent seasonally adjusted claimant count increased by 100 (0.2%) from last month’s revised total. It now stands at 60,700 (6.9% of the workforce) in December 2011. Over the year the Claimant Count in NI has increased by 2,400 (4.1%) and the workforce unemployment rate has increased by 0.3 percentage points.
Claimant Count Regional Comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate in NI (6.9%) was higher than the UK average rate (5.0%) and was the second highest rate among the twelve UK regions. The monthly increase in NI claimants (0.2%) was higher than the UK average increase of 0.1% during the same period. However, the annual increase in NI claimants (4.1%) was the second lowest among the UK regions (the annual increase in the UK was 9.8%).
Claimant count rates for District Council Areas
Unadjusted numbers as a percentage of the resident working age population show that the highest rates at December 2011 were in Derry (8.0%), Belfast (6.9%), Strabane (6.9%) and Limavady (6.8%). Those that showed the highest percentage increase in levels over the year to December 2011 were Fermanagh (12.9%), Carrickfergus (10.1%) and Derry (9.6%). For further District Council data please see section 3 of the Labour Market Report.
Employment and Training Measures
The Department for Employment and Learning (DEL) provides a number of services and programmes to help jobseekers find work. In September 2008 Steps to Work, the Department's new flexible approach to helping people to find work, was introduced in Northern Ireland and subsumes the main New Deal programmes. Overall, there has been an increase of 0.7% (82 persons) to 12,101 over the year to December 2011 in the number of those claimants who are eligible for mandatory participation on Steps to Work. However, anyone over 18 years old (or lone parents aged 16 years old or over) who is not working (or working less than 16 hours each week) is eligible. Steps to Work and New Deal statistics are currently accessible via the DEL web link below:
Steps to Work / New Deal statistics
Redundancies
There were 693 proposed redundancies notified during the period mid December 2011 to mid January 2012. This compares to 137 proposed redundancies that were notified in the previous monthly period. The current number of proposed redundancies is the highest since April 2009.
There were 245 confirmed redundancies in the month of December . Over the latest twelve month period there were a total of 1,728 confirmed redundancies, a decrease of 18% from the previous year (2,096).
Over the latest twelve month period there were a total of 2,008 proposed redundancies, a decrease of 37% from the previous year (3,205). Currently there are 1,190 outstanding redundancies (that is, proposed but not confirmed), which is 0.5% lower than this time last year (1,196).
Note that since all proposed redundancies do not actually take place, the confirmed total provides a better indication of real job losses.
Quarterly Employment Survey
The QES provides an estimate of the number of jobs (rather than persons in employment) and is the preferred measure of change in employee jobs. The estimated seasonally adjusted employee jobs total in Northern Ireland at September 2011 was 698,390. This represents a decrease of 750 jobs from the revised figure for the previous quarter and a decrease of 8,670 jobs over the year (see Section 9 for details of QES revisions).
The seasonally adjusted quarterly change consisted of increases in Manufacturing (+130) and Other industries (+120). Construction did not change over the quarter, while Services experienced a decrease (-990). Over the same period the private sector increased by 1,120 jobs whilst the public sector decreased by 1,900 jobs.
Hours Worked
The total workforce hours worked per week in Northern Ireland in March 2011 was estimated at 25.9 million hours, representing an increase of 1.2% over the year (compared with an increase of 3.2% in GB). Between March 2006 and March 2011, NI’s total workforce hours worked per week decreased by 0.4%, compared with an increase of 2.9% in GB . In the three months to October 2011, the average actual weekly hours worked in NI was 32.7 hours – similar to the UK average (31.7) for the period.
Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)
Earnings results for April 2011, which were released on 23rd November 2011, show that yearly growth in median gross weekly earnings for all employees (i.e. both full- and part-time) in NI was 1.5% (to £360.0) compared to the UK, where earnings remained the same (at £403.9). NI full-time employees’ gross weekly earnings at April 2011 were £450.6, which was 90.0% of the figure in the UK (£500.7). NI full-time earnings increased by 3.0% over the period, compared with an increase of 0.4% in the UK.
Full-time weekly private sector earnings increased by 3.5% to £394.2 and part-time earnings increased by 3.8% to £124.6 over the year in NI. This resulted in a narrowing of the NI/UK private sector pay gap to 82.8% of the UK figure.
